The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and the Role of External and Internal Factors in Emerging Economies

This article assesses the impact of trade, capital openness and institutions on emerging economies’ output loss during the “Great Recession.” The fixed-effect estimates of an unbalanced panel of 122 emerging countries observed from 2008 to 2010 yield three main results. First, trade openness has exacerbated output loss. Second, capital openness can help mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, but this is conditional on the level of financial development. Finally, the results also point out that the interrelations between financial and institutional development affect the crisis’s severity.     

经贸文体翻译之生命——准确性

实现经贸文体翻译的准确性,必须准确把握词汇含义,理解文化内涵,表现文体风格。     

成品油内贸销售业务内部审计关注点分析与实践

作为大宗商品的代表,成品油贸易销售业务独具特点。文章结合内部审计实践,通过专项审计案例,对成品油内贸销售业务的内部审计关注点进行分析探讨,从风险导向出发,阐述了审计实施要点、主要审计方法、审计发现的问题及审计成果运用,总结了专项审计中的经验和感悟。     

中国对拉美国家出口贸易影响因素实证分析——基于总量与技术结构视角

本文首先通过计算中国对拉美七国四类制成品出口密集度等,分析中国对拉美地区制成品出口结构;通过考察中国和拉美七国生产要素结构变化情况对中拉要素禀赋差异作深入分析,以期探究中国对拉美制成品出口结构背后深层次原因。然后构建扩展引力模型分别从总量视角和技术结构视角探析中国对拉美货物出口主要影响因素,结果显示拉美国家国内生产总值、中拉要素禀赋差异、中国货币自由度、中国对拉美直接投资水平对中国向拉美出口总量均产生显著促进作用,各影响因素对不同技术类别制成品出口的作用效果存在差异性。为实现中国对拉美出口贸易结构优化升级,推动中国产业结构调整升级,促进拉美地区经济更快发展,研究有针对性地提出了对策建议。     

Reducing tariff evasion: The role of trade facilitation

Can simplifying customs procedures reduce tariff evasion? We measure tariff evasion as the mis-representation of import values in response to increasing tariffs. In a dataset covering 121 countries and the whole set of HS6 product categories in 2012, 2015, and 2017, we show that simplifying border procedures, that is trade facilitation, reduces tariff evasion. Holding tariff rate constant at its mean, improving a country’s overall trade facilitation performance from the 25th percentile to the median reduces tariff evasion by almost 20%. The moderating effect is especially due to improving the pre-shipment legal certainty of customs procedures. Among the potential mechanisms, improving trade facilitation performance is effective in reducing tariff evasion due to under-reporting of import prices, as well as in countries with weaker control of corruption. The results suggest that countries can gradually implement trade facilitation reforms to cost-effectively minimize tariff evasion.     

西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长关系的计量分析

基于2006～2015年时间序列数据,利用计量经济统计方法,考察了西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长之间的关系。经研究发现,西藏国内贸易与本地经济增长的关系是长期均衡的发展关系,且西藏国内贸易是本地经济增长的原因;同时,在影响西藏经济增长的三大需求中,国内贸易的占比最大,由此说明,在促进西藏经济增长的"三驾马车"中,消费比投资、净出口更为显著。     

Can China reduce the carbon emissions of its manufacturing exports by moving up the global value chain?

This study analyses whether embedding in the global value chain has an impact on the carbon emissions of China’s exports. We develop a carbon decomposition model and use panel data for 14 manufacturing industries in China from 1995 to 2009 to empirically analyse the impact of China’s exports on carbon emissions. Our results show that the GVC effect on China’s carbon emissions embodied in manufacturing exports outweighs the scale, composition and technique effects.     

Bound by Gravity or Living in a ‘Post Geography Trading World’?* Expert Knowledge and Affective Spatial Imaginaries in the Construction of the UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Policy

A key battle has been fought within the UK cabinet on the direction of post-Brexit trade policy. The opposing sides have favoured either continued alignment or a ‘hard’ break with the European Union’s (EU’s) regulatory and customs regime, in the latter case to allow the UK to pursue an independent and ambitious trade policy agenda. Contrary to much commentary on ‘post-truth’ politics, both sides have relied on rival forms of expertise to support their claims. I argue for the need to not only re-emphasise the malleability and political nature of expert knowledge, but also appreciate its emotional bases. The Treasury has led the charge in favour of a softer Brexit by drawing on econometric (‘gravity’) models that emphasise the economic costs of looser association with the EU. In contrast to this attempt at technocratic legitimation, the specific legal expertise drawn upon by cabinet advocates of ‘hard’ Brexit has appealed to an emotive political economy of bringing the UK, and its (in this imaginary) overly regulated economy, closer to its ‘kith and kin’ in the Anglosphere, deepening the UK ‘national business model’. I conclude by calling for more explicitly emotive and values-based argumentation in the public debate on the UK’s future trade policy to improve the quality of democratic deliberation.     

外资企业的要素属权结构与出口增加值的收益归属

在生产全球化的时代大背景下,外资企业积极参与一国的生产和出口,并从所在国的出口中获取收益。外资企业的出口增加值中既包括了本国要素所产生的增加值,也包括了外国要素所产生的增加值,形成了外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构。研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构,一方面,有助于学术界理解外国要素流入对于本国要素出口增加值的拉动效应;另一方面,有利于学术界厘清外国要素流入所形成的要素收益分配效应。本文运用微观企业数据测算发现:2000—2013年在外资加工出口企业中,中国属权要素出口增加值占属地出口增加值的平均比重为65.85%,两者之间的平均背离程度为34.15%。本文进一步运用区分异质性企业的投入产出表进行测算发现:2012年在外资加工贸易企业和非加工贸易企业出口中,中国属权要素出口增加值与属地要素出口增加值的背离相对值分别为30.13%和25.32%。本文认为属地出口增加值已经不能充分反映外资企业出口中的本国要素收益,研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构有利于学术界认识增加值贸易中国内要素的实际收益,也可以为一国政府的对外贸易谈判提供科学依据。     

贸易战略选择:一般情形与大国情形

发展中国家普遍具有的二元经济结构的特征决定了这些国家经济发展的一个根本途径就是实行工业化。可供选择的实现工业化的手段包括出口促进和进口替代战略,而不同战略的业绩比较一直是学者们争论的焦点。文章通过一个简单的三部门模型,讨论了一般情况下不同贸易战略的绩效,并讨论了大国条件下不同贸易战略选择的特殊性以及有关我国贸易战略选择的问题。